How Donald Trump Secured a Gaza Strip Breakthrough Which Escaped Biden
At first, the Israeli air strike on the Hamas militant negotiating team in Doha appeared like yet another escalation that drove the hope of a ceasefire out of reach.
The attack on September 9 violated the territorial integrity of an US partner and risked expanding the conflict into a region-wide war.
Diplomacy appeared to be collapsing.
Instead, it turned out to be a pivotal event that culminated in a deal, announced by President Donald Trump, to release all remaining hostages.
That represents a goal that he, and President Joe Biden previously, had pursued for almost 24 months.
It is just the initial phase towards a lasting resolution, and the specifics of Hamas disarmament, Gaza governance and complete Israeli pullout are still to be worked out.
But if this deal holds, it could be Trump's defining accomplishment of his return to office - one that eluded Biden and his diplomatic team.
The president's distinct approach and key alliances with the Israeli government and the Middle Eastern nations seem to have played a role in this breakthrough.
But, as with most foreign policy wins, there were also factors involved beyond the influence of both leaders.
A Close Relationship That Eluded Biden
In public, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are all smiles.
The president likes to say that the nation has no better friend, and the Israeli leader has described Trump as the country's "greatest ever ally in the US presidency". Moreover these warm words have been backed up by actions.
Throughout his first presidential term, Trump relocated the American diplomatic mission in the country from its former location to the contested capital and discarded a traditional American stance that Israeli settlements in the occupied territories are against international law, the position under international law.
When the Israeli military began its air strikes against the Islamic Republic in the summer, Trump directed American aircraft to strike the Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities with its most powerful conventional bombs.
Those visible shows of backing may have given Trump the leeway to apply more pressure on the Israeli government behind the scenes. According to reports, the president's negotiator, his representative, browbeat the prime minister in the latter part of the year into accepting a temporary ceasefire in exchange for the freeing of some hostages.
When Israel attacked against Syrian forces in the summer, even hitting a Christian church, Trump urged Netanyahu to alter tactics.
Trump exhibited a degree of determination and pressure on an Israel's leader that is virtually unprecedented, says Aaron David Miller of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "It's unheard of of an US leader literally telling an Israeli prime minister that they must agree or else."
Biden's connection with the Israeli administration was always more tenuous.
His administration's "bear hug approach" held that the United States had to embrace the nation publicly in order to allow it to moderate the country's military actions behind closed doors.
Underneath this was Biden's nearly half-century of support for the state, as well as sharp divisions within his Democratic coalition over the conflict in Gaza. Every step Biden took risked fracturing his own domestic support, while Trump's loyal conservative voters gave him more flexibility to manoeuvre.
Ultimately, domestic politics or individual ties may have had less importance than the simple fact that, during Biden's presidency, the Israeli government was unwilling to reach an agreement.
Several months into Trump's second term, with Iran weakened, Hezbollah to its northern border significantly reduced and Gaza in ruins, every one of its key military goals had been achieved.
Business History Helped Gain Gulf's Backing
An Israeli strike in the Qatari capital, which killed a Qatari citizen but no Hamas officials, led Trump to deliver an final demand to Netanyahu. The war had to stop.
Trump had given the Israeli military a relatively free hand in Gaza. He lent US armed support to Israeli operations in the neighboring country. However an attack on Qatari territory was a separate issue entirely, pushing him towards the Arab position on how best to end the war.
Several administration figures have informed the press that this was a turning point which motivated the leader to apply maximum pressure to finalize an agreement.
The leader's strong connections with the Gulf states are well documented. Trump has business dealings with the emirate and the United Arab Emirates. He began each of his administrations with state visits to Saudi Arabia. Recently, he also visited in Qatar and the UAE capital.
The president's normalization agreements, which established ties between Israel and several Muslim states, such as the Emirates, was the biggest foreign policy success of his first term.
His visits he spent in the cities of the Arabian Peninsula in recent months helped shift his perspective, says an expert of the a policy institute. Trump did not visit the country on this regional tour but went to the UAE, the kingdom and Qatar where he received consistent appeals to put a stop to the war.
Less than a month after that attack on Doha, the president was present nearby as Netanyahu himself called the Qatari leadership to apologise. Subsequently, the prime minister signed off on Trump's 20-point peace plan for Gaza - one that also had the support of influential Arab states in the region.
Assuming Trump's alliance with his counterpart provided him the ability to pressure Israel to reach an agreement, his history with Arab rulers may have secured their support, and helped them convince Hamas to agree to the arrangement.
"A key factor that evidently occurred was that President Trump gained leverage with the Israelis, and through intermediaries with Hamas," notes an analyst of the a research center.
"That made a difference. His ability to do this on his own schedule, and not succumb to the desires of the warring sides has been a challenge that many previous presidents have faced, and he seems to do relatively successfully."
The reality that the president is far better liked in the nation than the prime minister personally was leverage that Trump used to his benefit, the expert continues.
Currently the Israeli government has agreed to releasing more than 1,000 Palestinians imprisoned in Israeli prisons and has agreed to a limited pullback from Gaza.
Hamas will release all the remaining hostages, living and dead, taken in the initial October 7 assault, which caused the loss of over 1,200 Israeli citizens.
An end to the war, which has led to the devastation of the territory and the deaths of over 67,000 {Palestinians|Pal